Virtual, augmented and mixed reality have a competition problem.

But while most AR/VR companies will tell you how much better they are than their nearest direct competitor, they’re picking the wrong fight. The main event isn’t between Oculus, HTC, Sony, Samsung, and Google for VR, or Microsoft, Magic Leap, Meta, and ODG for AR (including mixed reality). There are much bigger and scarier competitors out there.

Status quo

Status Quo is AR/VR’s biggest competitor (and I’m not talking about the band that started life aid).

People spend almost 11 hours a day using electronic media. That means that of the average 79 years that people spend on the planet, more than 34 of them are dedicated to the media. What could be so fascinating that we spend almost half our lives on it?

TV (live and pre-recorded) accounts for 48 percent of media time, phone/tablet 20 percent, radio 18 percent, online computer 9 percent, and everything else 6 percent. And while most media is in the doldrums, smartphones and tablets have done what was once thought impossible: increase the market for media. Phone/tablet time has more than doubled to over two hours a day in the last two years alone. And this skews even more strongly the younger you are. The old men who complain about the young glued to their phones aren’t just grumpy, they’re right.

So the bigger question is how does AR/VR compete with TVs, phones, and tablets?

Everything else

And that’s not all.

While people choose to spend half their lives with electronic boxes, they spend even more time doing things they can’t help themselves. Work and sleep each take up nearly seven hours a day on average, which, when combined with media time, adds up to the full 24 hours it takes Earth to go around once.

There isn’t much AR/VR can do about sleep, as even powerful mobiles haven’t quite conquered that barrier. But what about work (and other aspects of life)? This is where the triumph of mobile has clear lessons for AR/VR, but also where VR and AR start to diverge.

plurality rules

Sharp-eyed will have noticed that 24 hours of media, sleep, and work do not allow time for eating, playing sports, doing housework, family, socializing, commuting, and other noble activities, which clearly to some of us like to do. This is where plurality comes into play. He has been one of the main drivers of the success of mobile devices.

Plurality (or second screening in relation to television specifically) is where people do more than one thing at the same time. 87% of people use their phone, tablet or (to a lesser extent) PC as a second screen while watching TV. Some would say that television has become a reality on the second screen, with people watching it while using their phones.

But that’s not all for plurality and mobile. The average person checks their phone more than 40 times a day (more than 70 times a day if they are younger). People eat, do chores, take care of the family, socialize, travel and more while wearing them. The smartphone is the first thing many people see as soon as they open their eyes in the morning (and other unmentionable things in the morning, hence waterproof phones).

Yes, yes, but what about virtual reality?

The beauty of virtual reality is its total immersion. That’s one of the reasons it will be big.

But VR is all-consuming by nature, giving it a plurality challenge that mobile didn’t. Try walking down the street or meaningfully interacting with someone outside of your headset while in VR. And while you can make a second screen of your TV or smartphone with VR streaming, you’re still doing it inside VR instead of the world around you.

So in terms of time, VR has to cannibalize one of the other allotted 24/7 demands. This is a tough competition problem with mass consumers (so his grandpa and niece, not the major players). VR is going to have to knock something else off its pedestal to take up a lot of your time without the benefit of plurality. He’s fighting head-on with the status quo and everything else.

and RA?

AR has tougher technical challenges to solve than VR, which is why it’s currently focused on more forgiving business users and not mass consumers yet. But the most aggressive AR roadmaps are rolling out to mass consumers in 2017 entering 2018 – so it’s just a matter of time.

When the AR consumer gets here, they will have the same competitive advantage that mobile had: plurality. In fact, AR could have an even bigger advantage than mobile.

No need to take it out of your pocket. Without looking down to check. No small screen to limit what you see. No one looks over your shoulder to see you playing Candy Crush at work. Don’t bump into things while checking WeChat.

And this is not just a guess. Have you ever seen a couple of kids walking down the street playing pokemon go together? Even with such a basic type of AR, its plurality is already well proven.

What about the competition within AR/VR?

AR/VR Leaders

The industry competition is even more exciting because no one is dominant in any part of AR/VR as of yet. It is too early in the development of the market for anyone to dominate it yet. So while there is a healthy level of competition, the stakes are all in, and the rules are being written right now.

One of the nice things about seeing this from within the industry is that while people are talking bad to each other, the community is still collaborative. There seems to be a good understanding that the better everyone does, the better everyone does (which is why our quarterly VR/AR CEO forum reality check gets hundreds of competing CEOs, heads of corporate divisions, and venture capital partners making deals and working together.)

So let the AR/VR competition begin. It will be great.