While the iPod led to the iPhone, as I wrote above, Apple’s newer products like the Watch or AirPods are nice, high-margin additions to sell to iPhone users. But they’re a lot like ordering fries and a drink to go with a burger. They don’t create an ecosystem that Apple can grow. They trust the iPhone ecosystem.

It has long been rumored that Apple will create a car to compete with Tesla. That would be an example of a new market for Apple. But I don’t think an Apple car is going to happen, and that’s a topic for another time.

What does seem likely is that Apple will launch augmented reality/virtual reality headsets, rumored to arrive in 2023 with an operating system called xrOS.

While I’m always excited to see what innovations companies like Apple have in store, I have serious concerns about going all-in on AR/VR headsets as a growth market.

We’ve already seen a few attempts in this space, including Microsoft HoloLens and Magic Leap. They haven’t exactly taken the world by storm. When was the last time you or someone you know saw someone using these devices at their workplaces or in nature? Google’s Glass, I think it’s safe to say, was a flop. And Snapchat Spectacles aren’t even for sale to the general public, the company’s website says, for developers only.

Then there are VR products like Meta’s Oculus and competitors from Valve, Sony and HP. These have made some inroads among gamers, but years after their introduction, they are still a small fraction of the huge video game market.

As for other uses? So far, we haven’t seen any, despite Mark Zuckerberg’s strong belief that the metaverse is the future of our social lives and work meetings and whatnot.

However, there is a belief that Apple, which is generally not first to market, can enter a space and succeed where no one has before.

When it comes to this market, I am more than a little skeptical. First of all, the battery life of an AR device is a major concern. AR, as envisioned by Google Glass and Snapchat Spectacles, is designed to be worn for long periods of time, overlaying digital images and features on the real world.

While Apple hasn’t released any specs on this front (or any other), it seems highly unlikely that any device in this category will work for extended periods without recharging. Also, for all the ways Apple is a leader in elegant hardware design, battery life isn’t really its strong point. (In the world of smartwatches, for example, some Garmin devices last up to two weeks, according to reviewers, while an Apple Watch, in my experience, gives the wearer two to three days.)

There is also the matter of comfort. Glasses are not the most comfortable things to wear for long periods of time. And when you add the weight and bulk of technology needed for AR and VR, glasses like this become more uncomfortable to wear.

This is not to mention the fact that many people simply do not like to wear glasses, which will limit the market for these products.

Price is another important issue. Microsoft’s HoloLens costs between $3,500 and $5,200. Apple’s device is expected to be in the $1,000 to $1,500 price range, even though Apple is known for selling premium devices with premium price tags. But even at the low end, that’s a significant investment for a product that will do much less than a similarly priced MacBook or iPad.

Beyond practical concerns about battery life, convenience, and price, is the fundamental problem of the lack of a compelling use case for AR or VR headsets.

While these technologies have exciting potential, it’s not yet clear, beyond certain types of video games, what will be the star application to make them a must-have for consumers.

All of that is to say that while Apple’s AR/VR project may be interesting to die-hard Apple fans and tech enthusiasts who buy into Apple’s marketing machine and line up to buy its products on day one, it’s not. I think it’s the company. next big thing

Until Apple, or any other company, can demonstrate a truly compelling reason for large numbers of people to want to use AR, or add VR to their quiver of home entertainment options, I’m afraid the technology will have a hard time gaining a foothold. widespread adoption. There’s a reason Oculus devices have created a category known as the “closet”—a device that ends up stored and forgotten somewhere in a closet.

Michael Gartenberg is a former senior marketing executive at Apple and has covered the company for more than two decades as a market research analyst at Gartner, Jupiter Research, and Altimeter Group. He is also an Apple shareholder. He can be reached on Twitter at @Gartenberg.

The thoughts expressed are those of the author.