Source: news.google.com
“Stop calling Pokémon Go AR,” say the purists. But who cares what you call something that is so successful? Just be glad it happened, and let’s find out what it means for the AR/VR industry.
Pokémon Go is the uniqueness for AR/VR that everyone has been waiting for, but it looks very different from what everyone expected. It’s not space goggles from the future, it’s not high-tech, it doesn’t require new hardware, and it’s free. Who saw that coming?
It would be fair to say that not even Pokemon Go developer Niantic did, as despite its huge success, overwhelming user demand led to reports of significant server downtime at launch (not helped by DDoS attacks).
But the great thing about Pokémon Go is that hundreds of millions of consumers between the ages of 8 and 80 have played it around the world, watched others play it with bewilderment, or read about strange experiences with it in the miles of column inches and sheer number of electrons devoted to it. by the main media. AR/VR is no longer the creature of industry insiders, innovators, and early adopters (or TechCrunch readers). AR/VR became a mainstream phenomenon in less than a week, and it did so years before the most optimistic experts in the industry thought it would (including us).
So why has Pokémon Go been so successful?
First, Pokémon has a precious place in our hearts. Millennials grew up with it, watched by doting Gen X parents and baby boomer grandparents – it’s a brand that’s everywhere.
Second, a ubiquitous platform. We are approaching 4 billion mobile broadband subscriptions for smartphones and tablets this year, a platform that is everywhere.
Third, a fast core user loop. It’s not the Pokémon you played as a child. It’s even more accessible: a central user loop that works for everyone.
But still, purists will tell you, “Pokémon Go is not AR.”
Fourth, a purely mobile experience. You can play it wherever you go, and wherever you go is part of why you play it. And that is the key not only to the success of Pokémon Go, but also to the success of all of AR. Augmented reality is inherently mobile, and mobility has driven much of the technological innovation of the last decade.
AR is from Mars, VR is from Venus
But still, purists will tell you, “Pokémon Go is not AR.” So are they right or wrong?
Let’s review some definitions. Virtual reality places users inside the virtual world, immersing them. Augmented reality superimposes virtual objects on the user’s real world, augmenting it. Although closely related to AR, mixed reality anchors seemingly solid virtual objects in the user’s real world. They then appear to the user as real. So far, so simple.
But the technology is a bit more diverse than it seems at first glance. Digi-Capital’s Reality Matrix segments the market using some basic definitions:
- Virtual: the real world is locked (i.e. the user can only see the virtual world and virtual objects)
- Augmented: the real world is not blocked (ie the user can see the real world and virtual objects)
- Immersive: Technology drivers (way too deep in the weeds – see more here) combine to trick the user’s brain into reacting as if it were a real experience.
- Environment: One or more of the technology controllers do not provide the same level of experience as Immersive (Note: this may be desirable, particularly for some augmented reality applications)
The Reality Matrix is made up of four sectors, with some players operating through them to meet different user needs:
Console/PC VR makes users jump out of the way when a virtual whale swims towards them under the sea (eg HTC Vive, Oculus, PlayStation VR); Mobile VR offers a very good VR experience, but is not as immersive due to key factors such as positional tracking (eg Samsung Gear VR, Google Cardboard and Daydream); Augmented Reality ranges from the holographic display equivalent of Iron Man with transparent virtual objects in the real world in daylight (eg, Atheer) to “magic window” AR for smartphones/tablets (eg. g., Google Project Tango); Mixed Reality gives users virtual objects that appear solid in the real world in daylight (eg Microsoft HoloLens, Magic Leap, Meta), or easily switch between AR and VR (eg ODG)
But where does this leave Pokemon Go?
It’s augmented reality, Jim, but not as we know it.
Here’s the part where purists get upset (and not just because of The Firm’s Star Trek misquotation). So I’m just going to say it.
Pokémon Go is AR. Just a very basic version of it.
In many ways, Pokémon Go is just location-based entertainment, and not AR in the way that people in the industry think of it. But that is the point. It’s not about industry people anymore. It’s about public perception.
So what does Pokémon Go mean for AR/VR development?
And the public thinks Pokémon Go is AR. That’s how it is.
It doesn’t matter what you call it when you’re walking around the neighborhood with your friends hunting Pokémon. Never mind that the technology is old school (GPS, clock, camera). Never mind that there’s no fancy optics, SLAM (simultaneous localization and mapping), advanced computer vision, or other technological wizardry involved. None of that matters.
Because it’s fun. And it is everywhere. And people think it’s AR whether you like it or not. So deal with it.
Everything and nothing
So what does Pokémon Go mean for AR/VR development?
In terms of consumer acceptance, it’s monumental. People who would not have known or tried VR/AR/MR for years are actively participating in the market today. It’s tremendously good for the industry, because now there is mass market consumer awareness.
For app developers, everyone is struggling to figure out whether or not they can jump on the bandwagon. People who were hesitant about devoting resources to VR/AR/MR are now at least thinking about it. And budding engineers who are deciding what to do with their careers are being influenced by it. For talent flowing into the market, that’s a big help.
For the major VR/AR/MR tech companies (i.e. the hardware guys), Pokémon Go has had little impact on the way the technology develops. All challenges remain, and AR still needs that magical combination of hero device, long battery life, cellular capability, strong app ecosystem, and telecom cross-subsidies before it can really take off (circa 2018, based on current roadmaps). ).
For investors, it has been very exciting and very confusing. Pokémon Go is a very specific app with a lot going for it. Difficult to replicate at scale. Nintendo’s stock has been seen as more of a yoyo than a Pokeball. So while there are more rumors in the market than there were already (if that’s even possible), the underlying thinking of venture capitalists has largely remained unchanged.
Apple CEO Tim Cook said it best: “AR can be really cool. We have been and continue to invest heavily in this. We are high on AR long term. We think there are great things for customers and a great commercial opportunity… it will be huge”.
One small step for Pokémon, one giant leap for Pokémon.
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